Investment-thesis catalog
Investment theses, stress-tested.
Each entry is an economic framework, the portfolio it implies, and the evidence for how that allocation holds up under synthetic and historical stress.
−15% median · −27% p95
Every stress drawdown is shown with its tail, not just the typical path — a result graded on the median cannot hide a fat p95 here.
tested → falsified
Hypotheses are preregistered before fitting. Annual seasonality failed out-of-sample in 0 of 8 cells — so it is excluded, and we say so.
2022: the hedge broke
The stress model includes the regime where diversification fails — bonds falling with equities — not only the regimes where it works.
Regime-Balanced Allocation with a Debasement Tilt
Derived from the Systemic Money Model — credit-money, r < g erosion, the debasement/Fisher channel.
Spread capital so something carries in every macro regime — with a deliberate but bounded tilt toward scarce real assets.
Free-Rider Aggregate Ownership
Derived from the Free-Rider Portfolio Framework — collective intelligence, aggregation ownership, relentless friction minimisation.
Own the weighted-average outcome of everyone trying to pick the winner — and let the market’s price discovery work for you at near-zero cost.
Each new entry adds a framework, the portfolio it implies, and a full stress run — in the same format.
How to read this
Frameworks are stated as falsifiable hypotheses with evidence grades; portfolios are illustrative, rule-based allocations; stress results are model-dependent and described with their caveats. Nothing here is a recommendation, a suitability statement, or a forecast — only whether the evidence supports, qualifies or refutes each claim.
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